Global warming will create at least one billion refugees by 2050 as water shortages and crop failures force people to leave their homes, sparking local wars over access to resources, warns a new report [1] by Christian Aid. "We believe that forced migration is now the most urgent threat facing poor people in the developing world," said lead author John Davison.

Christian Aid calls on rich countries, which have emitted most pollution, to establish a US$ 100 billion (EUR 74 billion) a year global fund to help poor countries off-set the effects of climate change such as rising sea-levels, drought and more extreme weather.

One solution to mitigate climate change that Christian Aid does not support, is the use of biofuels. The aggressive promotion of biofuel crops like soya, maize and sugarcane in developing countries is leading to forced evictions of local communities and deforestation. In addition, Charlotte de Fraiture of the International Water Management Institute (IWMI) argues that growing biofuels [2] could put pressure on scarce water supplies in poorer countries. This is especially true for arid countries like China and India, which are already struggling to meet the predicted increase in water demand for food production. Unless other, less water-intensive, alternatives for feedstock are considered, biofuels are not environmentally sustainable, says De Fraiture.

[1] Baird, R. … [et al.] (2007). Human tide : the real migration crisis. London, UK, Christian Aid. Download the report and accompanying video clip here

[2] The effect of biofuels on water management was one of the main topics discussed at the International conference on “Linkages between Energy and Water Management for Agriculture in Developing Countries”, held in Hyderabad, India, 29-30 January 2007. Conference proceedings

Related news: Climate toll ‘to double within 25 years’, Source Weekly, 2 May 2007 ; Water scarcity: scientists see rise in drought-related conflicts, Source Weekly, 22 Mar 2007 ; Climate change: billions could face water scarcity by 2100, IPCC report, Source Weekly, 19 Feb 2007

Contact: Christian Aid, UK, info@christian-aid.org ; Charlotte de Fraiture, Senior Researcher, IWMI, Sri Lanka, c.fraiture@cgiar.org

Source: Reuters, 13 May 2007 ; Charlotte de Fraiture, SciDev.Net, 10 May 2007

Tags: water resources management